The data shown is not constant over time and the allocation may change in the future. Totals may not sum to 100.0% due to rounding. All data source Allianz Global Investors unless otherwise stated.
Data as of 30.06.2020
Data as of 30.06.2020. Excludes Cash
|Europe ex UK||27.8|
|Pacific ex Japan||5.5|
Data as of 30.06.2020. Excludes Cash
Global equities closed June with solid gains. Growing optimism about the possibility of a meaningful economic recovery initially propelled the market higher, despite heightened tensions between the US and China. These gains were then tempered following gloomy forecasts from central banks and renewed outbreaks of COVID-19 in China, Australia and the UK, as well as the US ‘Sun Belt’.
This reversal played out clearly at a sector level. Excitement about a meaningful economic recovery initially boosted the hitherto unloved Energy, Financial and Industrial sectors. However, as this enthusiasm waned, a more established pattern emerged once again, with Information Technology continuing its strong run of performance.
Similarly, oil prices rallied on speculation that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Russia would agree to extend their cuts to production, but then fell back, closing the month just above USD 40 a barrel. In a sign of broader concern as to the health of the economy and the financial system, gold surpassed USD 1,800 an ounce for the first time in more than seven years. The euro strengthened, as investors responded favourably to the Recovery Fund and to signs that the euro-zone economy may be over the worst.
The Trust’s portfolio performed in line with the benchmark. Stock selection provided the main positive contribution to performance, particularly in the Utilities and Financials sectors. The main negative contributions came from stock selection in Basic Materials, as well as the portfolio’s overweight allocation to Health Care, which lagged over the period. Against this backdrop, the Trust’s NAV returned 3.1% over June, marginally ahead of the 2.6% return of the benchmark.
Munich Re made the largest positive contribution. Pay-outs related to COVID-19 are at manageable levels and should be digested in the next round of premium renewals. Longer-term, the company has a leading position in fast-growing cyber insurance and is less exposed to the motor industry than peers.
AIA Group also boosted returns. Having lagged broader equity markets in May, shares in the Asia-Pacific focused financial services company strengthened following regulatory approval to convert its Shanghai branch into a wholly-owned subsidiary. The approval paves the way for AIA to continue its expansion throughout China.
Cooper Companies made the largest negative contribution. The maker of contact lenses and surgical products released results in June which saw revenues down 20 per cent year on year. In Vision, social distancing measures have reduced contact lens demand while an effective halt to elective procedures has made a significant negative impact in Surgical.
Ecolab has also detracted from returns. Having recovered all of Q1’s share price loss, renewed concerns about a return to normality, particularly amongst the company’s hospitality and leisure markets, led to a pullback in the provider of water and hygiene solutions.
We have added LVMH and Total to the portfolio, while exiting Richemont and Senior PLC.
LVMH is the world’s largest luxury goods group with some of the highest margins in the sector. The position is a direct switch from Richemont, a luxury peer whose smaller fashion brands and focus on the slower growing watch segment has acted as a drag on the shares.
Total is a French energy company with a broad mix of assets across liquids, gas and renewables. A conservative capital allocation framework and an industry leading ESG focus positions the company well for the energy transition.
Our sale of Senior, a specialist engineering company, reflects our view on the aerospace sector which is the most important end market for the business. Although the shares are not expensive, with no dividend and poor growth prospects, we took the decision to recycle the capital into other ideas.
Looking forward, the second half of 2020 has all the ingredients for a return to higher volatility. Company results are likely to be weak as they reflect the full impact of the difficult recent trading environment. Government-funded furlough schemes are set to expire which could lead to a significant rise in unemployment. And of course a resurgence of COVID-19 during the colder winter months could upset any nascent recovery.
Every month that goes by, it is becoming increasingly clear that COVID-19 has rapidly accelerated pre-existing structural trends, such as the digitalisation of goods and services, the provision of health care to ageing populations and a shift to lower carbon economies. We have commissioned a number of surveys using our in-house Grassroots® Research unit to assess how behaviours are changing. Although we are still early in this process, preliminary findings indicate that many of the behavioural shifts observed during the pandemic are likely to have a permanent impact even once the world returns to “normality”.
Our job is to ensure the Trust’s holdings benefit from these changes rather than being disrupted by them. We continue to expect strong growth from IT stocks that provide digitalisation’s underlying infrastructure. Similarly, consumer brands whose online retail platforms are delivering strong growth at higher margins, should benefit at the expense of less agile players that have not invested into digital.
Grassroots® Research is a division of Allianz Global Investors that commissions investigative research for asset-management professionals. Research data used to generate Grassroots® Research reports are received from reporters and Field Force investigators who work as independent, third-party research providers, supplying research that is paid for by commissions generated by trades executed on behalf of clients.
many of the behavioural shifts observed during the pandemic are likely to have a permanent impact even once the world returns to “normality”
This is no recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any particular security.
|NAV (debt at fair value)||19.5||-5.4||0.6||20.3||59.5|
Source: Thomson Reuters DataStream, percentage growth, mid to mid, total return to 30.06.2020.1
|NAV (debt at fair value)||0.6||8.7||9.9||25.9||5.4|
Source: Thomson Reuters DataStream, percentage growth, mid to mid, total return as at 30.06.2020.1
1Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future returns. You should not make any assumptions on the future on the basis of performance information. The value of an investment and the income from it can fall as well as rise as a result of market fluctuations and you may not get back the amount originally invested.This investment trust charges 70% of its annual management fee to the capital account and 30% to revenue. This could lead to a higher level of income but capital growth will be constrained as a result.
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